The Luck Factor: What Every Evolver Needs to Understand

by | Aug 29, 2023

The stock market is nothing more than a big game with tons of money involved.

Think about it … any competitive situation with rules and stakes, that ends with winners and losers, is a game. 

Once you understand this, you can potentially trade better by simply understanding how the game is played.

But here’s the catch…

In any game, two things matter more than anything: luck and skill. 

And while we’d like to think it’s always our fine-tuned skill that causes us to win and bad luck that causes us to lose, this is false.

Today, I’ll show you just how wrong this is while revealing some often overlooked factors of luck in the stock market.

Keep reading and I’ll show you what I mean…

The War Between Skill and Luck

For options traders, skill involves understanding the market, experience, research, and choosing the right contracts to trade at the right time. 

Luck, on the other hand, is that unpredictable part — the roll of the dice. 

After all, the market is influenced by a variety of factors outside of our control: news events, earnings reports, global politics, and even the weather…

SPOILER ALERT: This is where the role of luck comes in.

Here’s an analogy…

Let’s say you’ve done your homework and, based on your due diligence, you believe that the price of apples will go up in the near term. 

Naturally, you buy a call option…

But then, suddenly, there’s unexpected news: a new type of fertilizer has increased apple farmers’ output by 10x. 

The supply in the apple market is flooded, causing a decrease in demand. Apple prices drop, and your call option gets decimated. 

Was it a lack of skill that led to this? Of course not.

Even if you conduct perfect research, some things are impossible to predict (like the invention of a groundbreaking new fertilizer). 

This unpredictability is an example of straight-up bad luck in trading. But you must understand that external factors (like supply) are entirely out of your control as a trader. 

If you trade long enough, you’ll inevitably face a moment such as this one, where bad luck ruins an otherwise solid setup.

So, if luck plays a role, does that mean trading is just like gambling? Not at all. 

In a casino, most games are mainly about chance with little skill involved. The house always wins.

But options trading is more like poker, a game of skill where chance plays a smaller role. And while the best poker players may have a high win rate, they still take losses

Trading is no different … It’s essential to remember that some days will be lucky and others not. 

That said, there are steps you can take as a trader to allow yourself to get lucky

How to Set Yourself Up for Luck

Some people think luck is a totally abstract concept. But really, it’s not, at least not in the stock market.

You see, if you prepare diligently, you can set yourself up for lucky scenarios.

Speaking of that, let me tell you a story about a trade I made earlier this year…

In March, I bought puts on the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (NYSEARCA: BITO).

Just hours after buying my puts, Bitcoin (BTC) had dropped more than 4% as major crypto bank Silvergate Capital Corp. (NYSE: SI) announced it would delay its annual report and report further losses.

Now, I could pretend that I was a psychic genius here, but that’s simply not the case…

While I was extremely bearish on crypto (and SI specifically) for the first half of 2023, I couldn’t have predicted such an immediate negative headline. 

My overall bear thesis against crypto wasn’t lucky, that came from months of research. (I had been warning Evolvers about SI’s problems since early January.)

But I can’t hide that the timing of this play worked in my favor due to factors completely out of my control.

That said, I never would’ve had the opportunity to get lucky on this play had I not prepared myself through countless hours of homework and research on crypto at large.

And this is the point I want you to internalize…

By studying hard and doing proper due diligence, you’ll set yourself up for success in a number of ways.

You can conventionally nail a trade with an airtight thesis (which is ideal), but you can also get lucky (not preferable, but acceptable). 

However, getting lucky is impossible if you’re not prepared.

Had I not done months of research on the lack of solvency in crypto, chosen an appropriate strike price and expiration date, and known the connection between BITO and the broader markets … I never would’ve had the opportunity to get lucky on the timing of this trade. 

Was I totally correct about everything in my thesis? No. 

But I was right about the direction and the range, which allowed me to get lucky on the timing.

I closed this trade out the following day, turning a starting stake of $55,751.85 into $86,717.04 for a profit of $30,795.19 … in less than 24 hours.

Other times, luck will go against you, like in the apple analogy.

WARNING: You can’t rely on luck, but you must understand how it can help you (or hurt) you. 

Avoid trades that have elevated exposure to external factors that are out of your control. Stick to setups that minimize the role of luck (although you can never eliminate it entirely).

By doing so, you can potentially play the game better, and even increase your overall skill.

And speaking of leveling up your trading skills…

Are You Ready To Take The Next Step?

Here’s the truth … I wouldn’t be a multi-millionaire if I hadn’t joined Tim Sykes’ Trading Challenge so many years ago.

And I want you armed with all of the tools necessary for success in the stock market.

So, if you’re passionate and dedicated, ready to take on anything the market throws at you, then I’ve got something for you…

My mentor, Tim Sykes, has helped traders learn to succeed for years. More than 30 of them (including me) are now millionaires.

Are you ready to take your trading game to the next level? Do you have what it takes to face the Trading Challenge?

Let’s find out…


I’m excited to see you there!

Meet Mark:

Mark Croock is a former accountant who after studying under Millionaire Trader Tim Sykes turned his small account into $4.11 million in trading profits by applying Tim’s strategies to options trading.

He started Evolved Trader to pay it forward and help other traders learn how to leverage options


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